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Theshare of hydrogenin the energy mix will only be0.5% in 2030and5% in 2050. However, to meet Paris Agreement targets, hydrogen uptake needs to triple to meet15% of energy demandby mid-century.
(Source: DNV, 2022,Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)
Electricity-basedgreen hydrogenwill account for72%of production by 2050.
This will require a surplus of renewable energy, to power anelectrolyser capacity of 3,100 GW– more than twice the total installed generation capacity of solar and wind in 2022.
(Source: DNV, 2022,Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)
Blue hydrogenhas a greater role to play in the shorter term (around30% of total production in 2030), but its competitiveness will reduce as renewable energy capacity increases and prices drop.
(Source: DNV, 2022,Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)
Global spend on producing hydrogen for energy purposesfrom now until 2050will beUSD 6.8 tn, with an additionalUSD 180 bnspent on hydrogen pipelines andUSD 530 bnon building and operating ammonia terminals.
(Source: DNV, 2022,Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)
Cost considerations will lead tomore than 50%of hydrogen pipelines globally being repurposed from natural gas pipelines, as the cost to repurpose pipelines is expected to be just10-35%of new construction costs.
(Source: DNV, 2022,Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)
Early uptake of hydrogen will be led by hard-to-abate, high-heat manufacturing processes such as iron and steel production which currently use coal and natural gas. Hydrogen derivatives, such as ammonia and methanol, are key to decarbonizing heavy transport like shipping and aviation, but these fuelswon’t scale until the 2030s.
(Source: DNV, 2022,Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)
The uptake of hydrogenby 2050will differ significantly by region, heavily influenced by policy:
These four regions will together consumetwo-thirdsof global hydrogen demand for energy purposes by 2050.
(Source: DNV, 2022,Hydrogen Forecast to 2050)
By 2050, a little more than 1 TW capacity of solar PV will exist exclusively producing hydrogen, the majority of which will be in Greater China and the Indian Subcontinent. About 260 GW of off-grid solar capacity will be installed to provide electricity in hard-to-reach districts of Sub-Saharan Africa and the Indian Subcontinent.
(Source: DNV, 2022,烯rgy Transition Outlook)
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Media Relations, Energy Systems
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